Wildfire Incident Response

Replay

Fault runs

Scripted runs over the recorded feeds: a fault is injected at one step and a scripted operator tries to approve through the same checks the console uses.

Delayed weather

Aspen Acres · set 2026-09-26-r2

The NWS station stops reporting. Its last reading ages past the limit while every other feed keeps updating, then a new report arrives.

The fault is simulated; the snapshot, briefing and decision checks are the real code.

  1. Step 1 · T+0 minAs recorded
  2. Step 2 · T+150 minStation goes quiet
  3. Step 3 · T+180 minStation reports again

Step 2: Station goes quiet

rev-01ce493e7ca4

Two and a half hours on, every feed has updated except the NWS station, which still returns its old reading.

  • Incident locations: fresh
  • Incident perimeters: fresh
  • Satellite detections: fresh
  • Fire weather alerts: fresh
  • Station observations: stale
  • Modelled current weather: fresh
  • Resource positions: fresh
hotspots
25
clusters
18
near fire
0
merged
23
rejected
0
resources
4

Operator

  1. Approved on the step 1 briefingRefused. The inputs changed after the briefing you reviewed.
    • Modelled current weather (Open-Meteo): new data
    • Resource positions (Simulated AVL): new data
    • Station observations: fresh → stale
    • Now reads: Simulated resource positions (not a real feed): 2 engines, 1 crew, 1 helicopter, all within 7 km, last reported 2026-09-26 16:30 UTC.
    • Now reads: Open-Meteo models 51°F, RH 40%, wind WNW 15 mph, gusts 23 mph at the incident for 2026-09-26 16:30 UTC.
    • Now reads: The two weather sources agree within tolerance on temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction.
  2. Approved on the step 1 briefingRecorded over the refusal, on the briefing reviewed.
    • Modelled current weather (Open-Meteo): new data
    • Resource positions (Simulated AVL): new data
    • Station observations: fresh → stale
    • Now reads: Simulated resource positions (not a real feed): 2 engines, 1 crew, 1 helicopter, all within 7 km, last reported 2026-09-26 16:30 UTC.
    • Now reads: Open-Meteo models 51°F, RH 40%, wind WNW 15 mph, gusts 23 mph at the incident for 2026-09-26 16:30 UTC.
    • Now reads: The two weather sources agree within tolerance on temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction.
    Note: Crews are already moving on the earlier plan; recording that it stands while the new picture is checked.
  3. Approved with edits on the step 2 briefingRecorded.Note: Station reading is over 3 h old; using the Open-Meteo wind until it reports.

Conflicts and gaps

1 open
  • ConflictStation observations (NWS) are stale. NWS last updated 3.4 h ago (limit 2.0 h).
  • NoteThe station reading and the model value are 195 min apart, so they describe different moments.
  • NoteThe nearest reporting station is 44 km from the incident.

Briefing

template-v1 · rev-01ce493e7ca4

The briefing written at this step, from rev-01ce493e7ca4 as of 2026-09-26 16:38Z.

Situation

  • Aspen Acres (Custer County, CO) is reported at 102,004 acres and 82% contained, per the incident record last updated 2026-09-25 21:43 UTC. WFIGS incident record
  • The mapped perimeter covers 102,003 acres, mapped 2026-08-02 05:30 UTC. WFIGS perimeter
  • Simulated resource positions (not a real feed): 2 engines, 1 crew, 1 helicopter, all within 7 km, last reported 2026-09-26 16:30 UTC. Simulated engine SIM-332-E1 16:30ZSimulated engine SIM-332-E2 16:30ZSimulated crew SIM-332-C1 16:30ZSimulated helicopter SIM-332-H1 16:30Z

Satellite heat

  • No satellite heat in the last 24 hours is associated with Aspen Acres (search radius 17 km, plus the mapped perimeter). NASA FIRMS (VIIRS) fetch 16:38ZNASA FIRMS (VIIRS) fetch 16:38ZNASA FIRMS (VIIRS) fetch 16:38Z
  • Across the Rocky Mountain Region (USFS Region 2), 48 detections came from 3 satellite feeds; 23 repeat sightings of the same spot were merged. That leaves 25 hotspots in 18 clusters. NASA FIRMS (VIIRS) fetch 16:38ZNASA FIRMS (VIIRS) fetch 16:38ZNASA FIRMS (VIIRS) fetch 16:38Z

Weather

  • NWS station K4V1 (44 km away) observed 59°F, RH 51%, wind W 23 mph, gusts 30 mph at 2026-09-26 13:15 UTC. NWS K4V1 13:15Z
  • Open-Meteo models 51°F, RH 40%, wind WNW 15 mph, gusts 23 mph at the incident for 2026-09-26 16:30 UTC. Open-Meteo 16:30Z
  • The two weather sources agree within tolerance on temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction. NWS K4V1 13:15ZOpen-Meteo 16:30Z
  • No active NWS alert names Custer County. NWS fetch 16:38Z

Inputs and conflicts

  • 1 of 7 sources was not fresh as of 2026-09-26 16:38 UTC: station observations (stale). Data flag
  • The station reading and the model value are 195 min apart, so they describe different moments. The nearest reporting station is 44 km from the incident. Data flagData flag
  • Built from input revision rev-01ce493e7ca4 (9 payloads). NIFC WFIGS fetch 16:38ZNIFC WFIGS fetch 16:38ZNASA FIRMS (VIIRS) fetch 16:38ZNASA FIRMS (VIIRS) fetch 16:38Z+5

briefing sha256:16470090474b…